Pandemics and Cancelling Events

Started by Biketographer, March 14, 2020, 11:20:19 AM

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Biketographer

Why do we hear different numbers reported for death rates?Why do we hear different numbers for infection rates?
Why are small and large geographic regions implementing different 'containment' measures?
A great quantity of people are very disappointed that racing at Daytona was suspended and we did not understand the necessity. 
I found one very informative article that answers these questions.   You do not need to have an education in statistics to understand the explanations.   It is not a short article, but it is excellent. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca   Much of  the information appears conflicting because they are reporting different things yet calling them the same.  (Article explains multiple meanings of 'death rate.')

It is necessary to understand what 'exponential growth' versus 'linear growth' means.   Linear growth means you put a dollar in the cookie jar each day.  Each day you have one more dollar in there; after 7 days you have 7 dollars.    Exponential growth means that each day you double the amount in the cookie jar.  Put in a dollar on day one and on the 7th day you have 64 dollars.

Looks like a lot of public schools are going to be closed this week.

Daytona Bike week vendor permits were revoked yesterday.  That means all the t-shirt and motorcycle accessory vendors had to close unexpectedly.  https://www.wesh.com/article/bike-week-permits-ending-early-coronavirus-volusia-emergency/31493520

We were all disappointed that the racing was suspended, but what if it wasn't?  How would it have made motorcycle racers look compared to car racing and basketball competition?
When in traffic:  "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity" or, just a simple mistake.