Blackhawk Role Call

[Jeff]

Should have qualified that...  Thurs night...

[EM JAY]

 Daytime High /
Overnight Low (°F) Precip.
Tonight
May 05  Isolated T-Storms 54° 30 %
Thu
May 06  Strong Storms 74°/50° 60 %
Fri
May 07  Partly Cloudy 64°/50° 20 %
Sat
May 08  Scattered T-Storms 65°/49° 40 %
Sun
May 09  Isolated T-Storms 77°/59° 30 %
 >:(        >:(       >:(        >:(

[MadXX]

Daytime High /
Overnight Low (°F) Precip.
Tonight
May 05  Isolated T-Storms 54° 30 %
Thu
May 06  Strong Storms 74°/50° 60 %
Fri
May 07  Partly Cloudy 64°/50° 20 %
Sat
May 08  Scattered T-Storms 65°/49° 40 %
Sun
May 09  Isolated T-Storms 77°/59° 30 %
 >:(        >:(       >:(        >:(

Now that has changed from last night until today.  Weather people are like consultants.  They make a living by making educated guesses without really knowing how the world works.   :P

[EM JAY]

   I know, changing for the worse each day... >:(

        Who knows tho, I bet its 75 and sunny!  

[tzracer]

Weather is a chaotic dynamic system. It is by its very nature, a unpredictable system. 2 weather systems that vary very slightly in their initial conditions can quickly evolve into 2 very different systems.

[Dawn]

Weather is a chaotic dynamic system. It is by its very nature, a unpredictable system. 2 weather systems that vary very slightly in their initial conditions can quickly evolve into 2 very different systems.

Sounds like a woman....

Ooops!  Did I say that!   :-X  

Dawn   ;D

[RC51Racer]

I, for one am hoping for rain.  I'm forced to race the 600 this weekend and don't want to have to buy tires.

I have a new set of rains already mounted, but the tires on it are really worn (too many heat cycles).

Come on rain!!!!

[tshort]

Weather is a chaotic dynamic system. It is by its very nature, a unpredictable system. 2 weather systems that vary very slightly in their initial conditions can quickly evolve into 2 very different systems.

And a butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon basin can give rise to a tornado in Kansas.

[MadXX]

Weather is a chaotic dynamic system. It is by its very nature, a unpredictable system. 2 weather systems that vary very slightly in their initial conditions can quickly evolve into 2 very different systems.

But it is still a system with a logical order of triggers and events.  We just can't logistically determine or track all of the inputs to or the causal relationships in this complex system yet.  What bugs me is that most meteorologists won't admit that they don't know squat other than what the computer tells them.  Anyone who could give a sunny forecast for the day when torrential rain is beating on the windows and keep a straight face is just lying to themselves about their own inadequacies and should seek professional help.  

[Nate R]

LOL, Mad.

I was at BHF today. Interesting trying to get a semi across on an open track!  :o

Anyway, Dave's school looked good! Seemed to be about 8 riders there, but it looked like everyone had enough room to do their thing, and that Dave had enough time to get things done.

I think that's a better route to go.

FWIW: Most of the space along the front straight across from the hot pit area (east of it) is taken already by the Team Jordan Racing Semi.

[GSXR RACER MIKE]

I was at BHF today. Interesting trying to get a semi across on an open track!  :o

     Ya just had to have it leaned over enough to make it under the trailer! ;D

Anyway, Dave's school looked good! Seemed to be about 8 riders there, but it looked like everyone had enough room to do their thing, and that Dave had enough time to get things done.

I think that's a better route to go.

     This was my 1st Visionsports school (VRU), so I can't compare it to the others, but I got some questions answered today by Dave that had gone unanswered for some years. On top of that I learned some things that I never knew and Dave got my bike handling much better. The majority of the day was clear with only a couple minor sprinkles, so it turned out to be better than originally expected.

     FYI: There are a couple of patches that have been added since last season, but they aren't in bad spots and the track is still very rideable. :)

[tzracer]

But it is still a system with a logical order of triggers and events. ÊWe just can't logistically determine or track all of the inputs to or the causal relationships in this complex system yet. ÊÊ

Not quite. A chaotic system is fundamentally different than a non-chaotic system. What you describe is not a chaotic system.
There are some relatively simple chaotic systems and we cannot predict the outcome everytime.

Example:

I use a pitching machine to throw baseballs. The pitching machine is not perfect, the balls are not all launched with the same initial velocity, that is there will be some variation in speed and direction (small, but it will exist). All the baseballs will land very close to each other, say within a meter or two of each other.

If throwing baseballs were a chaotic system, slight changes in initial velocity could result in drastically different landing places.

The problem is that if there is ANY difference in the initial conditions, in a chaotic system, the system can evolve in a completely unexpected direction. It is not like the baseball, where similar initial conditions will give similar answers. These differences in initial conditions will always exist since measuring equipment will always have error. In a deterministic dymanic system it is not a big deal, the little bit of error does not have a very big affect on the outcome, in a chaotic system it does.

Chaotic systems do have patterns to their randomness. That is why the weatherperson can give a fairly accurate prediction out a few days. If the weather is similar on 2 days, the weather on the following 2 days should also be similar (most of the time, but not always). As models get more sophisticated it will make long range detailed forecasts better, but they will never be without a good deal of variation. The further out, the more error in the forecast, it is just the nature of the beast.