What are the front running 600 novices running?
1:38 - 1:39 top 3
1:42 top 10
depends on who ;) shows up. But it is VIR, so everyone probably will show up. So depends on if the ones who whoops azz usually are still amateur.
You grid position still matters too. Last time I end up 2nd wave even though I pre-entered. and its hard trying to finish top 10 coming from 30 something in a sprint race running 42's.